Boston Celtics superstar Jayson Tatum has produced MVP caliber seasons over the last three years while consistently leading the Celtics to the Conference Finals and advancing to one NBA Finals appearance.

In 2020, Tatum finished last in the MVP race with only one vote, followed by finishing in sixth place in 2021 and fourth place in 2022. Winning the award ahead of Tatum has been Giannis Antetokunmpo (2018-20), Nikola Jokic (2020-22), and Joel Embiid.

Tatum’s in a tough class when it comes to the MVP with consistently being in the running with Giannis, Jokic, Embiid, and Luka Doncic, and it seems like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to start being in this conversation more often than not.

The thing that differentiates Tatum from the rest is that he positions his team for a deep playoff run by finishing the regular season off strong and although it’s a regular season award, it’s fair to include this in the equation considering the Celtics are always a top playoff seed.

There are other stat-based factors that are involved when evaluating MVP that don’t necessarily include the success of the team. 

Last season, Tatum averaged over 30 points per game in the regular season for the first time in his career, but Embiid, Doncic, SGA, and Giannis also did the same.

The one thing the last three MVP winners have all accomplished that Tatum hasn’t yet is finishing the regular season averaging a double-double. Giannis and Embiid have both finished the last six regular seasons averaging a double-double while Jokic has done the same over the last three seasons.

Tatum finished last season averaging 30.1 points and 8.8 rebounds per game, which both were team highs for the Celtics and career highs for Tatum. He’s increased his overall production every year since he’s been in the NBA but it hasn’t been enough to earn the MVP despite how much he’s turned into a superstar and face of the NBA.

Tatum will need to average a double-double to win the MVP award.

Tracking the last three winners, Giannis and Jokic won back-to-back MVP’s before Embiid earned his first despite averaging six consecutive years worth of double-doubles. It’s also worth mentioning that Russell Westbrook averaged a triple-double four times in his career and only has one MVP award to show for it.

Tatum is by far one of the best rebounders on the Celtics but with a healthy Rob Williams and a new teammate in Kristaps Porzingis, Tatum isn’t going to be obtaining many rebounds as he did last year, which is the best opportunity he has at averaging a double-double.

If Tatum’s unable to get a double-double, then his best opportunity to win the award is to improve his shooting percentages across the board. Last year he averaged 46/35/85 shooting splits in the regular season but that wasn’t better than Luka, Giannis, or Embiid in terms of field goal percentage as Tatum had a better 3-point percentage than Embiid and Giannis. 

The criteria of league MVP seems to be unknown in today’s NBA. We’ve seen Giannis and Jokic win the award in back-to-back years from 2018-22 and now Embiid got his first. It’s possible Embiid could get his second next season if he produces another great season as it would track according to the last four years.

Winning MVP might not be as important to Tatum as winning an NBA championship and hanging a banner of his own to the TD Garden rafters is, but it’s hard not to think about it when he’s constantly in the conversation and what else he needs to do to be named league MVP.

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